A slim majority of voters want to see capital gains taxes on rental properties, a new poll shows.
However, there is strong opposition to a capital gains tax on the family home.
Between July 8 and 12, the 1News Verian poll asked eligible voters whether they supported or opposed capital gains being taxed when people sold rental properties.
Of those surveyed, 52% said they supported it, 37% said they were opposed, while the remaining 11% said they didn’t know or refused to answer.
The survey also asked whether respondents supported or opposed capital gains being taxed when people sold their family home.
Only 16% of those surveyed said they supported it, 75% said they were opposed, and the remaining 9% did not know or refused to answer.
Last week, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins ruled out a capital gains tax or wealth tax under his leadership.
Today, his opinion remained unchanged, saying he believed now was not the time for “radical changes to our tax system.”
“New Zealanders have repeatedly, over various election cycles, made it clear that they do not support big new taxes like a capital gains tax or a wealth tax.
“They have had the opportunity to vote for them in the past and they have not.
“Now is really the time for some consolidation.
“The economic situation is difficult, this is not the time for massive changes in our tax system.”
He said the Labor government had already made a number of changes to reduce the untaxed profits of property speculators, such as extending the Brightline test to 10 years.
National leader Christopher Luxon said his party did not support a capital gains tax.
“Raising taxes is not the way out of a recession.”
He said capital gains taxes on homeowners “only lead to higher rents.”
“That doesn’t help people in a cost of living crisis.
“New Zealanders can see for themselves that ultimately the capital gains tax will put a wrecking ball on our country.”
Green Party co-leader James Shaw said he was not surprised by the poll result as Green Party polls showed most New Zealanders wanted a “fairer tax system” including income tax. equity in investment properties.
“We have one of the least fair tax systems in the world.
“It is distorting in the economy and it means that the government is not raising the revenue that it needs to be able to solve some of the big challenges, like getting all those families that are still below the poverty line above that line.”
He said he hoped the poll would be a wake-up call for Hipkins, but the major parties had “made decisions against the weight of evidence and against the weight of public opinion” repeatedly.
Shaw said there was no political party that advocated a capital gains tax on the family home.
“There is no political appetite for that and the population does not support it.
Central vote fight ahead – political scientist
Victoria University of Wellington political scientist Lara Greaves said the 52% of people who supported a capital gains tax on rental property was “something of a mandate, but probably not a clear mandate.”
She said it was clear that people did not support taxes on the family home.
“It’s one thing to tax people who own multiple houses or trusts or rental properties that seem like a different category of people than the family home that people seem to think should be protected.”
“There’s a lot of support for those ‘mom and pop’ type investors…versus those who are buying houses, are leveraging, are trying to invest and make money from people’s homes.”
Greaves said he was “quite surprised” when Hipkins ruled out tax changes last week.
Possible changes were “foreseen” by the high net worth research project reportwhich found that New Zealand’s wealthiest families paid a lower effective tax rate, on all their income, than middle-income families, it said.
“A lot of people were hoping that some kind of wealth tax would be coupled with that.”
He said that National would continue the lines of attack on taxes and the alleged instability of the “coalition of chaos” – a possible Labour/Greens/Te Pāti Māori government.
“In this election, it’s really hard to tell Labor from Nationals. They are both fighting for the center and at the moment Labor seems to be taking the position, ‘well we are not Nationals’ and Nationals are saying, ‘well we are not Labor’.
“I think that’s what scrapping the tax means…we have these parties competing for that center ground and they’re doing what they think will appeal to that group.
“I suspect that voter turnout will also decline because there is not that positive hope for the future that we have seen in previous elections. We know that when it looks like it’s going to be a little bit more positive, that’s when we tend to see turnout.”
However, he said a close matchup could also help voter turnout and that fight was likely.
Breakdown of support for capital gains tax
Those groups of eligible voters who were more likely than average (52%) to support a capital gains tax on rental property included supporters of the Green Party (73%), supporters of the Labor Party (62%) ) and people older than 70 years (62%).
Those groups of eligible voters who were more likely than average (37%) to oppose a capital gains tax on rental property included supporters of the Act Party (50%), supporters of the National Party (49 %) and people from 35 to 54 years old (42%). .
Those groups of eligible voters who were more likely than average (16%) to support a capital gains tax on family homes included Green Party supporters (34%), men ages 18 to 34 (29%), and those with an annual household income between $30,001 and $70,000 (21%).
Eligible voter groups that were more likely than average (75%) to oppose a capital gains tax on family homes included Act Party supporters (94%), people age 55 and older (85%), %) and supporters of the National Party (82%). .
Between July 8 and 12, 2023, 1,000 eligible voters were surveyed by mobile phone (500) and online, using online panels (500). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1% points at a 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those below 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. Data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts by age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The mobile phone sample is selected by random dialing using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel.