Betting on someone to go to the garden is wonderful. It’s a full nine inning sweat as you never know when your target player will step up. But because even the best MLB players don’t average a home run per game, or even a home run per two games, finding the right spots to aim for can be tricky. Let’s dive into the best strategies for making home run picks in the current MLB betting landscape. With new derivatives markets popping up every week, FanDuel’s The early home run market is also worth discussing.
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MLB Home Run Betting Strategy Guide
Target the right hitters
Most MLB rosters can be overwhelming. Typically, you’ll have at least 10-13 games to choose from when placing your home run bets, which means there are plenty of hitters to target. So how do you know which one is the right one?
Batting divisions come up as one of the most important factors to consider when identifying a hitter to target. For example, the star of the Atlanta Braves matt olson It was always a good bet to hit a home run in 2023, but before the All-Star Break, he had hit 25 of his 29 home runs against RHP. Olson’s batting average drops to .213 against LHP, so he may not be much of a bet when he faces a lefty.
A variety of other stats should be on your radar. The number of home runs a player has hit up to that point in the year is obvious: You probably shouldn’t trust a player with two home runs at the midpoint of the season to suddenly go for yardage in his next game. You can also check the information of a player. expected home runs to see if they really lack power or have just been unlucky.
Lastly, consider the odds you get. Unless you’re acting on home run leaders like Olson or shohei ohtanipurchase quotas +300 (25%) or worse, it’s usually not smart: few hitters hit a home run in a quarter of their outings. If you think you’ve found a reasonable number, cross-reference different books to see what the best price is, or use OddsShopper bet buying pagesthey do the work for you.
Targeting the right pitchers
Some pitchers are more susceptible to giving up the long ball than others. RHP jordan lyles he’s someone who jumps off the page every time he makes his starts. In 2021 and 2022, Lyles allowed a combined 64 home runs. He fast-forwards to 2023 and he’s tied for the fifth-most home runs allowed before the All-Star Break.
It’s also important to keep splits in mind when you’re thinking about banishing a pitcher. Lyles concedes home runs to each side of the plate, unlike LHP patrick corbin. Since 2021, Corbin has allowed a total of 81 home runs, but 92% were knocked down by RHBs. Going for a switch hitter or a right-handed bat would be a better bet than going for a left-handed bat against Corbin.
Weather factors and ballpark
weather and approximate factors come into play every game. It doesn’t matter if a batter is batting at Coors Field or T-Mobile Park, he must factor in where the game is being played into his home run betting strategy. Coors Field and its high elevation top every MLB scoreboard when it comes to betting on home runs, but the dimensions of T-Mobile Park make it one of the most pitcher-friendly parks around.
Wind and rain can also affect a game in many ways. Take a look at the wind direction to see if it will help or hurt selected hitters. Shooting games played in dome stadiums or when the wind is blowing are your best bet for cashing in on a home run bet.
To hit the first home run
This is a new support that FanDuel Has offered. For hitters facing shaky pitchers, it can be valuable to back them up to hit the first home run of the game. Assessing one to three hitters in the order they’re on the road is the best option, since they’ll be hitting first.
What other home run betting tips and strategies can help?
Career numbers against opposing pitchers are always something to consider. Let’s say the New York Yankees host the Los Angeles Dodgers with gerrit cabbage on the mound As of the 2023 All-Star Break, mookie bets, freddy freeman and jd martinez all have homered against Cole. Martinez is 8-for-43 against Cole with two home runs.