Brewers vs Phillies odds
Although he has struggled in his last two starts, veteran right-hander Julio Teherán has been mostly solid and a good midseason addition to the Milwaukee Brewers.
On offense, the Brewers have shown of late that they can handle right-handed shooters. They’ll have to do it again against Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies in Tuesday night’s series opener at Citizens Bank Park.
Like Tehran, Nola has been scarred in a couple of his recent starts, but given his status as Philly’s ace, it makes sense that the home team would be the favorite.
However, if the Brewers can close the gap on offense, an aspect of the game in which the Phillies often have an advantage over opponents, then they have value.
Tehran has a 3.64 ERA with a 3.90 xERA. Those numbers skyrocketed after he gave up six and seven runs in back-to-back starts. In his six starts prior to those outbursts, he allowed no more than two races won at any start.
Despite giving up a lot of runs in those last two outings, Teheran managed to record at least five innings, which can be attributed to his ability to throw strikes. He owns a 4.9% walk rate and a 17.3% strikeout rate. He also has an average exit velocity and hard hit rate that ranks him in the top half of the league.
When it comes to hitting, the Brewers have generally fallen behind their opponents. But in July, they have a 12.9% walk rate versus a 19.2% strikeout rate for rights and are producing better results with a 104 wRC+.
As of June 18, they have seven hitters with at least a .315 xwOBA (minimum 10 plate appearances against righties). Jahmai Jones and Tyrone Taylor haven’t seen much action against right-handers, but both can hit the ball hard when called upon.
The Brewers’ bullpen is starting to look phenomenal.
In July, they have a 2.76 xFIP with a strikeout rate of 30.6%. Their entire active bullpen is below 4.00 xFIP, so even if Tehran comes off looking unusually short, they have the arms to back it up.
While better than Tehran, two of Nola’s last three outings have been mediocre. His 4.39 ERA doesn’t tell the whole story since she has a 3.74 xERA, but these numbers aren’t too dissimilar to Tehran’s.
Nola has similar ranges in average exit velocity and strong hit rate. seldom walk batters and strikes out more batters, but there isn’t enough room to justify this heavily weighted line toward Philly.
The Phillies, who are very much on the line for a NL Wild Card spot, can hit: They have a wRC+ of 118 and an OPS of .814 in July against righties.
Those marks surpass the Brewers, but looking at the past month against right-handed pitching, the Phillies have six hitters with at least a .315 xwOBA. They do have a few more hitters who have fewer than 10 plate appearances, but the difference between the two offenses is negligible.
Philadelphia’s bullpen is worse than Milwaukee’s. The Phils have a 4.57 xFIP with three active arms below a 4.00 xFIP.
The fact that José Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez are on the disabled list gives Milwaukee an edge.
Brewers vs. Phillies Betting Selection
- Tehran and Nola have struggled lately and have comparable expected stats.
- The Brewers and Phillies have relatively even hitting numbers over the past month.
- Milwaukee has the superior bullpen.
So … why exactly are the Phillies so favored?
Take the Brewers on the money line and play them at +140.
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